{"componentChunkName":"component---src-templates-news-single-js","path":"/news/property-clock","result":{"pageContext":{"title":"3 reasons why now is the right time to buy a residential development site","slug":"property-clock","data":{"title":"3 reasons why now is the right time to buy a residential development site","slug":"property-clock","acf_json":"{\"news_media\":[{\"media_type\":\"image\",\"image\":{\"ID\":787,\"id\":787,\"title\":\"Hub Property Group Michael Hermans\",\"filename\":\"HubPropertyGroup_MichaelHermans.jpg\",\"filesize\":109469,\"url\":\"https:\\/\\/admin.hubpropertygroup.com.au\\/wp-content\\/uploads\\/2021\\/12\\/HubPropertyGroup_MichaelHermans.jpg\",\"link\":\"https:\\/\\/admin.hubpropertygroup.com.au\\/our-people\\/hubpropertygroup_michaelhermans\\/\",\"alt\":\"Hub Property Group Michael Hermans\",\"author\":\"1\",\"description\":\"Hub Property Group Michael Hermans\",\"caption\":\"Hub Property Group Michael Hermans\",\"name\":\"hubpropertygroup_michaelhermans\",\"status\":\"inherit\",\"uploaded_to\":278,\"date\":\"2021-12-13 05:17:41\",\"modified\":\"2021-12-13 22:29:47\",\"menu_order\":0,\"mime_type\":\"image\\/jpeg\",\"type\":\"image\",\"subtype\":\"jpeg\",\"icon\":\"https:\\/\\/admin.hubpropertygroup.com.au\\/wp-includes\\/images\\/media\\/default.png\",\"width\":1000,\"height\":750,\"sizes\":{\"thumbnail\":\"https:\\/\\/admin.hubpropertygroup.com.au\\/wp-content\\/uploads\\/2021\\/12\\/HubPropertyGroup_MichaelHermans-150x150.jpg\",\"thumbnail-width\":150,\"thumbnail-height\":150,\"medium\":\"https:\\/\\/admin.hubpropertygroup.com.au\\/wp-content\\/uploads\\/2021\\/12\\/HubPropertyGroup_MichaelHermans-300x225.jpg\",\"medium-width\":300,\"medium-height\":225,\"medium_large\":\"https:\\/\\/admin.hubpropertygroup.com.au\\/wp-content\\/uploads\\/2021\\/12\\/HubPropertyGroup_MichaelHermans.jpg\",\"medium_large-width\":768,\"medium_large-height\":576,\"large\":\"https:\\/\\/admin.hubpropertygroup.com.au\\/wp-content\\/uploads\\/2021\\/12\\/HubPropertyGroup_MichaelHermans.jpg\",\"large-width\":1000,\"large-height\":750,\"1536x1536\":\"https:\\/\\/admin.hubpropertygroup.com.au\\/wp-content\\/uploads\\/2021\\/12\\/HubPropertyGroup_MichaelHermans.jpg\",\"1536x1536-width\":1000,\"1536x1536-height\":750,\"2048x2048\":\"https:\\/\\/admin.hubpropertygroup.com.au\\/wp-content\\/uploads\\/2021\\/12\\/HubPropertyGroup_MichaelHermans.jpg\",\"2048x2048-width\":1000,\"2048x2048-height\":750,\"full_width\":\"https:\\/\\/admin.hubpropertygroup.com.au\\/wp-content\\/uploads\\/2021\\/12\\/HubPropertyGroup_MichaelHermans.jpg\",\"full_width-width\":1000,\"full_width-height\":750,\"medium2\":\"https:\\/\\/admin.hubpropertygroup.com.au\\/wp-content\\/uploads\\/2021\\/12\\/HubPropertyGroup_MichaelHermans.jpg\",\"medium2-width\":1000,\"medium2-height\":750}},\"video\":false,\"video_embed\":null}],\"news_content\":\"

Having spoken to countless clients and developers over the past fortnight it is clear confidence within the development industry is as weak as it gets, and rightfully so. With construction prices jumping higher, the cost of debt increasing and house prices falling, the challenges are broad and somewhat overwhelming. However, we are seeing some emerging optimism due to some positive macro trends. Here are some reasons why at Hub Property Group, we feel that now is the right time to buy a development site.<\\/p>\\n

    \\n
  1. Interest Rates nearing the peak<\\/strong><\\/li>\\n<\\/ol>\\n

    Interest rates are a daily conversation. Everyone has a view of where they think interest rates are likely to peak and when. Opinions vary and nobody knows the answer for sure, but as the rate of increases decline (50bps down to 25bps) and no RBA meeting in January, the economy will have some time to absorb higher interest costs and it is widely accepted that inflation will begin to moderate from early 2023. Once inflation is under control (or trending towards it), the economy will require stimulation and rates may begin to fall in late 2023. When rates are falling, house prices will return to positive growth. If you were to buy a site today, the earliest you could launch a sales campaign would be late 2023 if not early 2024. This timing aligns with our expectations of a stronger residential market and whether interest rates are stable or falling.<\\/p>\\n

      \\n
    1. Lack of Supply + Increased Demand in 2023<\\/strong><\\/li>\\n<\\/ol>\\n

      The Covid 19 economic and social hangover has resulted in a forward forecast of diminished supply over the next three years. At the same time, in response to a shortage of labour, government support of migration in 2023 looks to be at a 10-year high. With a lack of new dwellings completing and a swelling of population, there will be a shortage of housing. 2023, 2024 and 2025 are forecast to provide record levels of migration and population growth. This will result in upward pressure on rentals and house prices as soon as rates begin to fall. Aligning your sales campaign with a strong residential market is critical to securing your presales and maximising revenue and the timing of this looks to align with late next year.<\\/p>\\n

        \\n
      1. Construction costs beginning to stabilise<\\/strong><\\/li>\\n<\\/ol>\\n

        Many people have been frightened by the lack of certainty in construction costs and like many, recent tenders at Hub Property Group have produced variable results. Many tenders we have undertaken this year have had a spread of pricing of up to 50% (the highest price being 50% more than the lowest price). But we are now observing a stabilisation of pricing with increased predictability in pricing outcomes. As the supply of new projects falls sharply in 2023, we anticipate that builders will need to be competitive to secure projects that are viable and able to start construction. This may provide improvement in construction pricing.<\\/p>\\n

        All of these trends lead to a more positive development environment from mid to late 2023 and the benefits of which only assist those sites with a permit. This leads to the discussion and support of buying sites today in anticipation of a positive sales market in 12-15 months. The challenge is that acquisition feasibilities aren\\u2019t currently reflecting hurdle returns that are typically required for developers to commit to buying new sites. However, for those that are brave and buy when others are not buying, there may be some genuine rewards ahead.<\\/p>\\n

        Written by Michael Hermans, Managing Director, Hub Property Group.<\\/p>\\n\",\"thumbnail_image\":{\"ID\":787,\"id\":787,\"title\":\"Hub Property Group Michael Hermans\",\"filename\":\"HubPropertyGroup_MichaelHermans.jpg\",\"filesize\":109469,\"url\":\"https:\\/\\/admin.hubpropertygroup.com.au\\/wp-content\\/uploads\\/2021\\/12\\/HubPropertyGroup_MichaelHermans.jpg\",\"link\":\"https:\\/\\/admin.hubpropertygroup.com.au\\/our-people\\/hubpropertygroup_michaelhermans\\/\",\"alt\":\"Hub Property Group Michael Hermans\",\"author\":\"1\",\"description\":\"Hub Property Group Michael Hermans\",\"caption\":\"Hub Property Group Michael Hermans\",\"name\":\"hubpropertygroup_michaelhermans\",\"status\":\"inherit\",\"uploaded_to\":278,\"date\":\"2021-12-13 05:17:41\",\"modified\":\"2021-12-13 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        Having spoken to countless clients and developers over the past fortnight it is clear confidence within the development industry is as weak as it gets, and rightfully so. With construction prices jumping higher, the cost of debt increasing and house prices falling, the challenges are broad and somewhat overwhelming. However, we are seeing some emerging optimism due to some positive macro trends. Here are some reasons why at Hub Property Group, we feel that now is the right time to buy a development site.

        \n
          \n
        1. Interest Rates nearing the peak
          2. \n
        \n

        Interest rates are a daily conversation. Everyone has a view of where they think interest rates are likely to peak and when. Opinions vary and nobody knows the answer for sure, but as the rate of increases decline (50bps down to 25bps) and no RBA meeting in January, the economy will have some time to absorb higher interest costs and it is widely accepted that inflation will begin to moderate from early 2023. Once inflation is under control (or trending towards it), the economy will require stimulation and rates may begin to fall in late 2023. When rates are falling, house prices will return to positive growth. If you were to buy a site today, the earliest you could launch a sales campaign would be late 2023 if not early 2024. This timing aligns with our expectations of a stronger residential market and whether interest rates are stable or falling.

        \n
          \n
        1. Lack of Supply + Increased Demand in 2023
          2. \n
        \n

        The Covid 19 economic and social hangover has resulted in a forward forecast of diminished supply over the next three years. At the same time, in response to a shortage of labour, government support of migration in 2023 looks to be at a 10-year high. With a lack of new dwellings completing and a swelling of population, there will be a shortage of housing. 2023, 2024 and 2025 are forecast to provide record levels of migration and population growth. This will result in upward pressure on rentals and house prices as soon as rates begin to fall. Aligning your sales campaign with a strong residential market is critical to securing your presales and maximising revenue and the timing of this looks to align with late next year.

        \n
          \n
        1. Construction costs beginning to stabilise
          2. \n
        \n

        Many people have been frightened by the lack of certainty in construction costs and like many, recent tenders at Hub Property Group have produced variable results. Many tenders we have undertaken this year have had a spread of pricing of up to 50% (the highest price being 50% more than the lowest price). But we are now observing a stabilisation of pricing with increased predictability in pricing outcomes. As the supply of new projects falls sharply in 2023, we anticipate that builders will need to be competitive to secure projects that are viable and able to start construction. This may provide improvement in construction pricing.

        \n

        All of these trends lead to a more positive development environment from mid to late 2023 and the benefits of which only assist those sites with a permit. This leads to the discussion and support of buying sites today in anticipation of a positive sales market in 12-15 months. The challenge is that acquisition feasibilities aren’t currently reflecting hurdle returns that are typically required for developers to commit to buying new sites. However, for those that are brave and buy when others are not buying, there may be some genuine rewards ahead.

        \n

        Written by Michael Hermans, Managing Director, Hub Property Group.

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